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In this case, a new market would likely emerge as airlines, malls, restaurants, and cafés start purchasing cheap, rapid tests so that they can get back to business. The same kits could be used as “infection-free” passports for admission to public spaces such as schools and workplaces.

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For example, tests could be made available free of charge at local pharmacies, with the expectation that everyone tests themselves on a regular basis and self-isolate if positive. Therefore, with a purposeful program design that carefully considers the functionality and limitations of the technology deployed, rapid tests can enable decentralized universal testing programs at the community level. Although these tests are sub-optimal in sensitivity compared with the standard polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, they are specific enough to detect infections at scale in settings disease prevalence is high and, crucially, they do not require centralized laboratory facilities. The necessary testing technology of rapid immunodiagnostic tests – such as saliva-based antigen tests that are similar to home pregnancy tests and cost less than $5 – already exists. The missing ingredients are industrial policies and other government measures to coordinate and steer production, in order to eliminate the bottlenecks that the private sector faces. To be truly effective, any such program must be designed to generate systemic resilience and public value.Īs has been demonstrated by the Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer, the epidemiologist Michael Mina, a recent IMF working paper, and many others, a properly designed universal testing program could bring the pandemic to an end within just a few months. Implementing universal testing will require contributions from a sprawling network of actors and institutions.

Such a mission-oriented approach requires a holistic, systems-level perspective, particularly when it comes to “wicked problems” like public-health crises and climate change, which involve a wide range of complex socioeconomic and technological issues. Over-reliance on the private sector may prevent governments from maximising test production and deployment For example, the British government has proposed a “moon shot” testing program, yet its actual strategy needs clarification. Yet even in advanced economies, over-reliance on the private sector may prevent governments from maximising test production and deployment. Moreover, while universal testing remains a feasible, cost-effective, and immediately available method of managing the pandemic until a vaccine arrives, this approach also requires manufacturing capacity and sound governance in the public interest. While the World Health Organization’s Covid-19 Technology Access Pool promises to foster accessibility, the actual availability of vaccines and treatments also will hinge on local manufacturing capacity, which in many countries has been eroded by deindustrialisation. Much depends on how we govern the production and distribution of new drugs. Research to develop a safe, effective, and widely available Covid-19 vaccine is advancing rapidly.

Tests could be made available free of charge at local pharmacies